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dc.contributor.authorBohensky, EL
dc.contributor.authorReyers, B
dc.contributor.authorvan Jaarsveld, AS
dc.date.accessioned2007-07-06T11:57:27Z
dc.date.available2007-07-06T11:57:27Z
dc.date.issued2006
dc.identifier.citationBohensky, E.L., Reyers, B. & van Jaarsveld, A.S. 2006. Future Ecosystem Services in a Southern African River Basin: a Scenario Planning Approach to Uncertainty. Conservation Biology 20(4), 1051–1061.en
dc.identifier.issn0888-8892
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/306
dc.description.abstractScenario planning is a promising tool for dealing with uncertainty, but it has been underutilized in ecology and conservation. The use of scenarios to explore ecological dynamics of alternative futures has been given a major boost by the recently completed Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a 4-year initiative to investigate relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being at multiple scales. Scenarios, as descriptive narratives of pathways to the future, are a mechanism for improving the understanding and management of ecological and social processes by scientists and decision makers with greater flexibility than conventional techniques could afford. We used scenarios in one of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's subglobal components to explore four possible futures in a Southern African river basin. Because of its ability to capture spatial and temporal dynamics, the scenario exercise revealed key trade-offs in ecosystem services in space and time and the importance of a multiple-scale scenario design. At subglobal scales, scenarios are a powerful vehicle for communication and engagement of decision makers, especially when designed to identify responses to specific problems. Scenario planning has the potential to be a critical ingredient in conservation as calls are increasingly made for the field to help define and achieve sustainable visions for the future.en
dc.description.sponsorshipDST_NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biologyen
dc.format.extent7576236 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherBLACKWELL PUBLISHINGen
dc.subjectconservation decision makingen
dc.subjectecological processesen
dc.subjectecosystem servicesen
dc.subjectMillennium Ecosystem Assessmenten
dc.subjectpossible futuresen
dc.subjectsocial processesen
dc.subjectLAND-USEen
dc.subjectCONSERVATIONen
dc.subjectMANAGEMENTen
dc.titleFuture Ecosystem Services in a Southern African River Basin: a Scenario Planning Approach to Uncertaintyen
dc.typeArticleen


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