Upper thermal limits in terrestrial ectotherms: how constrained are they?
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1. Terrestrial ectotherms are likely to face increased periods of heat stress as mean temperatures and temperature variability increase over the next few decades. Here, we consider the extent to which changes in upper thermal limits, through plasticity or evolution, might be constrained, and we survey insect and reptile data to identify groups likely to be particularly susceptible to thermal stress. 2. Plastic changes increase thermal limits in many terrestrial ectotherms, but tend to have less effect on upper limits than lower limits. 3. Although comparisons across insect species have normally not taken into account the potential for plastic responses, mid-latitude species seem most prone to experience heat stress now and into the future, consistent with data from lizards and other groups. 4. Evolutionary adaptive potential has only been measured for some species; there is likely to be genetic variation for heat responses in populations, but selection and heritability experiments suggest that upper thermal limits may not increase much. 5. Although related species can differ by several degrees in their upper thermal limits, there is strong phylogenetic signal for upper limits. If these reflect evolutionary constraints, substantial molecular changes may be required to increase upper thermal limits. 6. Findings point to many terrestrial ectotherms having a limited potential to change their thermal limits particularly within the context of an average predicted temperature increase of 2–4 °C for mid-latitude populations over the next few decades.