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dc.contributor.authorHui, C.
dc.date.accessioned2011-10-03T09:31:35Z
dc.date.available2011-10-03T09:31:35Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.identifier.citationHui, C. (2011) Forecasting population trend from the scaling pattern of occupancy. Ecological Modelling, 222: 442-446.en
dc.identifier.issn0304-3800en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/949
dc.description.abstractForecasting the temporal trend of a focal species, its range expansion or retraction, provides crucial information regarding population viability. To this end, we require the accumulation of temporal records which is evidently time consuming. Progress in spatial data capturing has enabled rapid and accurate assessment of species distribution across large scales. Therefore, it would be appealing to infer the temporal trends of populations from the spatial structure of their distributions. Based on a combination of models from the fields of range dynamics, occupancy scaling and spatial autocorrelation, here I present a model for forecasting the population trend solely from its spatial distribution. Numerical tests using cellular automata confirm a positive correlation, as inferred from the model, between the temporal change in species range sizes and the exponent of the power-law scaling pattern of occupancy. The model is thus recommended for rapid estimation of species range dynamics from a single snapshot of its current distribution. Further applications in biodiversity conservation could provide a swift risk assessment, especially, for endangered and invasive species.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work is supported by the NRF Blue Skies Programme, the Subcommittee B fund at Stellenbosch University and the DST-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology.en
dc.format.extent534735 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoenen
dc.subjectSpatial scaleen
dc.subjectSpatial autocorrelationen
dc.subjectArea of occupancyen
dc.subjectPopulation dynamicsen
dc.subjectScalingen
dc.subjectOccupancyen
dc.titleForecasting population trend from the scaling pattern of occupancyen
dc.typeJournalArticlesen
dc.cibjournalEcological Modellingen
dc.cibprojectSpatial concordance in diversity and its temporal changeen


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